This article came to my attention this morning from a friend who shared it on Facebook. A couple thoughts came up as I read it.
- How dangerous it could potentially be to believe that success in life boiled down to luck
- Predictive computational behavioral models assume that people actually have an accurate understanding of their own abilities
It would be interesting to know how the model turned out if another variable was added that was more along the lines of “recognizing ‘luck’ and locking in gains”. It seems a lot of us here are lucky, in that we were born to be old enough to remember before internet and after internet and the advantages that holds with recognizing certain problems that can be solved by the internet, but many people don’t recognize that the internet playing field offers lop-sided risk/reward. I’ve given A LOT of thought to seeming intelligence and success and how disconnected they seem to be in a lot of people. Recognizing luck kinda seems even more predictive than the luck itself.
Luck definitely exists and definitely affects things. A major issue with how our brains understand luck is that we have a tendency to either start believing that we are “lucky”, or to write off factors that are in our control, such as putting ourselves into situations where there is a lopsided opportunity to get lucky without the downside risk being as great.
Interesting read though! Thanks for sharing Jason Calouri!
Here is a link to the article in case you’d like to read it.